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Are High Odds Good or Bad?

Are high odds good or bad? Find out here. 

By
Mignon Fogarty,

 

Ben Zimmer has an interesting post today over at Language Log about something Newt Gingrich recently said that is hard to parse because it has so many negatives:

It's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I'm going to be the nominee. (ABC News, emphasis added)

 

Ben's post didn't address the problem with the "high odds" part of the sentence though, and I just happen to have consulted recently with a mathematician about that topic for my upcoming book GRAMMAR GIRL'S 101 TROUBLESOME WORDS (Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Powell's). Here's what he helped me conclude:

Odds and Probability Are Not the Same Thing

Mathematically, odds and probability are not the same thing, although colloquially, many people treat the words as synonyms. Further complicating matters, odds for the same event can be presented in different ways. For example, one person might think of the odds of rolling a six on a regular six-sided die as 1 to 5 in favor, and another person might think of the odds as 5 to 1 against.

"High Odds" and "Low Odds" Are Confusing

You can get in particular trouble when you talk about odds being high because high odds can mean something is likely or unlikely depending on how your reader interprets it. The same goes with calling odds low.

What Should You Say?

Use another word. For example, say there's a good chance or a high probability of something happening if you mean it's likely. If you must use odds, say they are good or bad, not high or low.

Mignon Fogarty is the author of Grammar Girl's 101 Misused Words You'll Never Confuse Again. Follow her on Twitter or Facebook.

About the Author

Mignon Fogarty

Mignon Fogarty is the founder of the Quick and Dirty Tips network and creator of Grammar Girl, which has been named one of Writer's Digest's 101 best websites for writers multiple times. The Grammar Girl podcast has also won Best Education Podcast multiple times in the Podcast Awards, and Mignon is an inductee in the Podcasting Hall of Fame. Mignon is the author of the New York Times best-seller "Grammar Girl's Quick and Dirty Tips for Better Writing" and six other books on writing. She has appeared as a guest on the "Oprah Winfrey Show" and the "Today Show" and has been featured in the New York Times, Business Week, the Washington Post, USA Today, CNN.com, and more. She was previously the chair of media entrepreneurship in the Reynolds School of Journalism in Reno, NV. She hates the phrase "grammar nazi" and loves the word "kerfuffle." She has a B.A. in English from the University of Washington in Seattle and an M.S. in biology from Stanford University. Mignon believes that learning is fun, and the vast rules of grammar are wonderful fodder for lifelong study. 

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